Open enrollment on the healthcare exchanges doesn't start until November 1 but news of projected premium increases of 22% to 25% hit the streets last week. Write ups about the rate increases can be divided into two camps—the beginning of the end of Obamacare and it’s not as bad as you think because... That “because” refers to the fact that the increase, although huge, does not apply to the vast majority of health insurance purchasers. It does not apply to the more the 50% of Americans who get health insurance from their employers or seniors, veterans, the disabled and poor. It also does not apply to about 85% of people who purchase individual policies on the exchanges. It does apply to the millions of people, like me, who do not receive a health insurance premium subsidy.

So one camp want to amplify the harshness of the Obamacare increases, with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) going as far as to express its condolences to people, like me, who are stuck paying the full premium increase. But with their condolences comes a healthy dose of we told that arrogant President Obama that Obamacare was destined for failure. They don’t really care about the individuals paying high health insurance premiums, just like they never cared about the people paying even more or being denied coverage for preexisting conditions pre-Obamacare.

And then there is the, it’s not as bad as it looks camp. They want to stress how few people have to pay the full increase in premiums without subsidy support and how subsidies will increase in step with premiums for those eligible for them. Some go into the mathematical weeds to prove their point of just how nearly insignificant this non-subsidy group is, with estimates ranging from 1.5 million people to as high as 9 million people. And then there is a very small subset of this camp that unfortunately includes some in the Administration, that claim millions of non-subsidy people are probably eligible for subsidies but just don’t know it.

The drafters of the Affordable Care Act should have included safeguards to ensure that everyone eligible for a subsidy automatically receives one. The idea that people have to learn something additional about the already complex health insurance buying market is a bad one. But still, the minimizing of the pain of large increases stings, but not as much as a bunch of jerks using someone’s financial pain for a political, we were right.

And just this evening, I was listening to Aetna CEO, Mark Bertolini, talk about how we need to fix the risk corridors for health insurers. Sadly, they will more than likely get their subsidy before I get one. And neither the “we told you so” nor the “it’s just a few of you” camps will care.

Tags: obamacare, obamacare subsidies